Should You Go First Or Second When Negotiating?
Practitioners and researchers disagree!
Common wisdom says you should always wait and let the other party make the first move. You’ve heard it before: Hold your cards close, gather information, and only then reveal your position. This waiting game is often framed as a power move—by making them move first, you've seemingly gained the upper hand without revealing your own position.
But empirical evidence disagrees! Academic research on negotiation predominantly recommends that you be the first one to put an offer on the table.
Why the disconnect between conventional wisdom and peer-reviewed results? And what’s the answer: Should you be the first to make an offer or sit and wait?
It depends. And that’s part of why I find this whole topic fascinating.
Scroll right to the bottom if you just want the practical guidance. If you’re interested in the why, keep scrolling (slowly).
The Power of Moving First
Lurking at the academic research, there seem to be three broad reasons why being the first-mover typically gives you an advantage:
Setting the Anchor
This is the big one! Anchoring bias is quite powerful. The first offer presented creates a cognitive reference point that exerts a gravitational pull on the entire negotiation. Subsequent offers and counteroffers orbit around this initial position, even when both parties are aware of the psychological mechanism at work.
Research consistently demonstrates that final settlements correlate more strongly with first offers than with almost any other factor in the negotiation process.
Controlling the Conversation
Beyond simply establishing anchors, going first allows you to steer negotiations by shaping expectations and defining the structure of the discussion. You establish which issues take center stage, which remain peripheral, and how success is ultimately measured (Maaravi et al., 2023).
Signaling Confidence
Making the first offer projects preparation and authority, which in turn influences the perception of your competence. This confidence effect alters the psychological dynamics of the interaction before substantive discussion even begins (Magee et al., 2007).
The Strategic Value of Patience
Outside of those compelling first-mover advantages, there appear to be five specific circumstances where being the second-mover—reacting to an offer—creates a strategic advantage:
1) When Value Ambiguity Is High
In situations where there is significant ambiguity about the market value of a product or service, waiting provides critical information. Research indicates that waiting for the first offer allows you to assess expectations and priorities before committing to a position (Osorio, 2020).
2) When Significant Information Asymmetry Exists
Evidence indicates that in negotiations where one party has significantly more information than the other, it is actually preferable for both parties to avoid making the first offer! This prevents revealing knowledge gaps and reduces the risk of making an offer that is too extreme or too weak.
Research by Maaravi & Levy (2017) demonstrates that in these cases, making the first offer can inadvertently signal your limitations rather than establishing an advantage.
3) When Significant Power Imbalances Are Present
In negotiations with a major power imbalance, making an extreme first offer can backfire, particularly when a low-power negotiator attempts to anchor the discussion. High-power negotiators may perceive such an offer as presumptuous, potentially leading to an impasse rather than advantage.
Zhi's research (2008) found that aggressive opening offers from the lower-power party often trigger defensive responses that derail productive discussion.
4) When Flexibility Is Essential
In complex negotiations involving multiple issues, research finds that delaying the first offer allows negotiators to gather more information and reach more creative agreements. Waiting gives the second-mover an opportunity to explore different options to negotiate, leading to deals that better satisfy both parties' underlying interests (Sinaceur et al., 2013). This is of significant value when you feel you must make a deal.
5) When You Want to Prioritize How You Feel
Interesting research from Rosette et al. (2014) found that making the first offer can lead to higher levels of anxiety and reduced satisfaction with the negotiation outcome. This effect is particularly strong when negotiators fear they might be taken advantage of (Rosette et al, 2014).
So What’s The Consensus?
Making the first offer is frequently advantageous due primarily to anchoring effects. However, research highlights that there are specific circumstances where allowing the opponent to make the first offer can provide an informational advantage and reduce the risk of making a poor opening move.
Move first when you have decent information or want to exert control. This allows you to anchor expectations and direct the discussion. Therefore, in most circumstances, you want to be the first person to make an offer.
Move second when you (or everyone) lack’s significant information, power, or confidence—waiting helps you gather intel and adjust your approach accordingly.
Moving from theory to practice, here's how to determine your optimal approach in specific professional contexts:
When You Should Move First
Most of the time, moving first gives you an advantage by setting the anchor, controlling the conversation, or signaling confidence:
Negotiating Salary or Raises: If you're well-informed on industry salary benchmarks or market rates for your service, leading with a strong first number (and offering a range!) sets the negotiation anchor in your favor.
Buying/Selling an Established Product/Service: Making the first offer establishes your value proposition and pricing before they can anchor the discussion lower.
Adjusting Pricing of Renewable Contracts: If you have an existing business relationship, moving first to propose renewal terms and reasoning sets a favorable reference point.
Setting Deadlines or Terms: When discussing contract terms, project timelines, or deliverables, making the first offer lets you frame the expectations in your favor.
Pitching an Idea or Proposal at Work: If you're proposing a new initiative, budget request, or seeking funding, stating your case first establishes your priorities and sets expectations.
Handling Workplace Conflicts or Disputes: Addressing a problem before others define the narrative positions you as a proactive problem solver with a viable solution rather than a reactive participant.
When You Should Move Second
You may want to avoid being the first one to put an offer on the table in specific cases where the market for a service is opaque, you have significantly less knowledge and power, when the negotiation is extremely complex, or you absolutely must make a deal, such as:
Salary Discussions When Salaries Are Not Well-Known: If you're discussing a new or rare position where salary benchmarks are unclear, waiting helps you avoid undervaluing yourself.
Negotiating Bonuses & Equity (other comp): There is less market data on compensation around bonuses, stock options, or perks than base salary—waiting allows you to negotiate on multiple fronts.
Buying/Selling Where Pricing Varies Widely: Waiting for other’s initial offer can help you avoid pricing yourself out of a deal by going too high or low, as well as reveal room for discounts and adjustments. As my colleagues at DCMInsights include in their Activator program, this is especially true in selling professional services.
When You Are Expecting Criticism: Letting others outline their feedback first gives you time to frame your response positively and demonstrate empathy.
When You're Negotiating Something With Extreme Complexity: Such as a potential buyout or merger, wait to see what your opponents' priorities are.
When You (Only) Care About How You’ll Feel: If limiting anxiety and feeling satisfied are much more important than tangible outcomes, going second may help you feel at ease.
When You Must Reach an Agreement: If you need to avoid an impasse at all costs, go second so you can react with more information.
It Depends.
The question isn't "which approach is better?" but rather "under these specific conditions, which approach creates advantage?"
The most sophisticated negotiators understand that effective strategy isn't about dogmatically adhering to "always go first" or "always wait"—it's about developing the contextual intelligence to select the right approach for each specific situation. This more nuanced understanding moves beyond the binary debate about first-mover versus second-mover advantage and instead focuses on developing the analytical framework to assess each unique situation on its own terms.
The Decision Framework Shortcut
If you remember nothing else, consider this framework:
🔹 Do I have enough information? → Move first.
🔹 Is there tremendous uncertainty? → Wait and move second.
That's it for this edition - please reach out if I can be at all helpful.
Be compassionate and intentional.
Bibliography
Ames, D. R., & Mason, M. F. (2015). Tandem anchoring: Informational and politeness effects of range offers in social exchange. Journal of personality and social psychology, 108(2), 254.
Dluhosch, B. (2010). The second-mover advantage in international trade negotiations. Global Economy Journal, 10(1), 1850187.
Jiang, C. M., & Ma, J. T. (2019). “When your anchor sinks your boat”: A replication and extension study. Journal of Economic Psychology, 75, 102138.
Loschelder, D. D., Trötschel, R., Swaab, R. I., Friese, M., & Galinsky, A. (2016). The information-anchoring model of first offers: When moving first helps versus hurts negotiators. The Journal of Applied Psychology, 101(7), 995-1012.
Magee, J. C., Galinsky, A. D., & Gruenfeld, D. H. (2007). Power, propensity to negotiate, and moving first in competitive interactions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33(2), 200-212.
Maaravi, Y., & Heller, B. (2021). Buyers, maybe moving second is not that bad after all: low-power, anxiety, and making inferior first offers. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 677653.
Maaravi, Y., & Levy, A. (2017). When your anchor sinks your boat: Information asymmetry in distributive negotiations and the disadvantage of making the first offer. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(5), 420-429.
Maaravi, Y., Levy, A., & Heller, B. (2023). To Bid or Not to Bid? That is the Question! First‐Versus Second‐Mover Advantage in Negotiations. Negotiation Journal, 39(3), 259-278.
Osório, A. (2020). On the first-offer dilemma in bargaining and negotiations. Theory and Decision, 89(2), 179-202.
Rosette, A. S., Kopelman, S., & Abbott, J. L. (2014). Good grief! Anxiety sours the economic benefits of first offers. Group Decision and Negotiation, 23(4), 629-647.
Smirnov, V., & Wait, A. (2007). Market entry dynamics with a second-mover advantage. The BE Journal of Theoretical Economics, 7(1).
Wang, M., Zhang, Z. X., & Han, Y. L. (2008). The impact of the first offer on negotiation impasse: Negotiating roles matter. Acta Psychologica Sinica.